Monday, April 2, 2018

Cost-push inflation

"This has happened many times before, the Fed will see that inflation is getting out of hand and worried about inflationary expectations building up. So they create a recession on purpose to break the inflation. That kind of thing could happen. But then again I don't know that President Trump wants that. And we do have an independent Fed but they might hesitate to break it up. There are people advocating more inflation now, maybe two percent is too low a target. So I could see that inflation the heading up that would mean big capital losses for bondholders. Everything has repercussions."

via cnbc

Tuesday, March 27, 2018

Donald Trump is a showman

"Well he[President Trump] has hired some extremist people. For example, Peter Navarro wrote a book with, can you believe this, with the title is 'Death by China', and then he calls the Chinese 'assassins' of our business. Pretty strong language. It seemed to me that no responsible president would give credence to that, but here we are. I think he's a showman who is doing this for political reasons within the U.S."

"And he has a philosophy of life that that's what you have to do, if you want to stay a famous celebrity, which he obviously relishes, you've got to be constantly creating news."

Tuesday, March 6, 2018

This is a first shot in a trade war

"I'd wonder if this isn't just a first step, that Trump has in mind raising other tariffs. Even if he doesn't there will be other countries who will retaliate and they'll get bigger. This is really like a first shot in a war and that's what is worrisome."