Monday, July 16, 2018

Robert Shiller prize from Kiel Institute

Robert Shiller has just received the Global Economy Prize at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy in Kiel, Germany, on June 17, 2018.

The award, presented by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the city of Kiel, and the Schleswig-Holstein Chamber of Commerce, “is meant to honor those who have proposed creative, pathbreaking initiatives to deal with globalization and who dare envision a more wholesome future by addressing the global problems of our time.”

The institute said that Shiller “is known for challenging and refuting the conventional view in economics of rational investors and efficient markets that are self-correcting and always return to equilibrium.”

Tuesday, July 10, 2018

Housing market could see further price gains

"The market has been looking overheated ever since 2012 when we saw the upsurge that has been going on now for almost six years. And it looks like it’s still going up." 

"It’s been going like that since 2012. Home prices have come down a lot, but they are getting back up.

“I like to put things in real terms. In nominal terms … we’ve surpassed 2006, which was the peak. But in real terms, we’re still fairly far below the 2006 peak. I don’t think we’re in the same enthusiasm still.”

“I think that the lenders have become more circumspect. This crisis is still remembered. And we don’t see as much securitization. Back then, it wasn’t just securitization, which by itself is a venerable concept in finance. It was inappropriate ratings of those securities and sometimes less than forthcoming behavior on the basis of securitizers. So I think we’re in a better situation now."

“It got a little crazy in 2006, as you might remember. And it had some unfortunate consequences. We shouldn’t just assume that that’s going to happen again. But it might, it might. Expectations are not as extravagant as they were 10 years ago. So it looks more like we’re still coasting, still coasting up” Mr Robert Shiller added.

Via YahooFinance

Monday, June 11, 2018

Theres thousands of crypto-currencies now

"Bitcoin won't look anything like it is today. It will have a different name, if it exists. There will have been many hard forks changing it and changing it. And, it'll be a matter of dispute whether it exists or not.

The one scenario is that something like what happened after 2013 when bitcoin topped $1,000, and then lost 80 percent of its value. It looked like bitcoin was just fading away. It's so hard to predict these things."

Tuesday, June 5, 2018

Why the US markets seem to be going up

"There is a sort of optimism about the markets under Trump, and that's still continuing. I don't see a reason for it about to change. There's something about how the world is reacting to the president. Something about his self-confidence which is gradually lifting our spirits.

We've seen an overpriced stock market. We've seen concerns about that for years now.

If you have been overexposed to the United States in your portfolio, this is a time to reconsider that. Not to pull out, but to balance things ... Europe is cheaper than the U.S." - via CNBC

Monday, April 2, 2018

Cost-push inflation

"This has happened many times before, the Fed will see that inflation is getting out of hand and worried about inflationary expectations building up. So they create a recession on purpose to break the inflation. That kind of thing could happen. But then again I don't know that President Trump wants that. And we do have an independent Fed but they might hesitate to break it up. There are people advocating more inflation now, maybe two percent is too low a target. So I could see that inflation the heading up that would mean big capital losses for bondholders. Everything has repercussions."

via cnbc