Monday, December 4, 2017

Bitcoin is exciting but prices will come down

Bitcoin, it’s just absolutely exciting. You’re fast. You’re smart. You’ve figured out nobody else understands. You’re with it. And bitcoin has this anti-government, anti-regulation feel. It’s such a wonderful story. If it were only true.

I don’t know where it’s going to stop. It’s going to go way up, like the stock market in the 1920s. We will reach a 1929 eventually. But then it won’t go to zero, it just will come down.

Monday, November 13, 2017

President Donald Trump could help inspire further stock market increases

The U.S. stock market today looks a lot like it did at the peaks before most of the country’s previous 13 bear markets.

I am worried about a correction. But my gut is it will keep going up for a while. There was breathless anticipation of something bad happening. I just don’t see it now. [But] it could change fast

Trump could inspire more stock increases. He is a motivational speaker for capitalism.

Monday, October 16, 2017

Robert Shiller talks about Bubbles in Bitcoin, Gold, Market

On Bitcoin
I'll take bitcoin, too, because I know I can sell it and get out of it. There seems to be some strange enthusiasm for it. People get excited about things like new monetary standards. Remember bimetallism? It went into a fad, everyone was talking about it for a while. And then it faded.

I think gold is a bubble, but it's always been a bubble. It has some industrial uses, but it basically it's like a fad that's lasted thousands of years.

Market Confidence 
Confidence in the valuation of the market is indeed the lowest it's been since 2000. And when it got low in 2000, the market fell about 40 percent. So it was bad. I think there's a danger, but I'm not saying to sell everything. I'm still in the market myself."

Thursday, September 7, 2017

Satoshi Nakamoto's story is driving Bitcoin prices

"I'm not as negative as it may seem, but I think that the thing that's driving bitcoin at the moment, like other examples of bubbles, is a story. And it's the quality of the story that's attracting all this interest, and it's not necessarily sustainable.

Then, we have a new form of money that ... sounds extremely revolutionary and involves a very clever use of cryptography that you can spend all afternoon trying to figure out. So the story has inspired young people and active people, and that's what's driving the market. It's not fundamentals. It's not like this is a fundamentally important thing, this bitcoin.

I don't mean to say that we're going to see a burst in bitcoin tomorrow and it will be gone forever. We did see a burst in 2013, by the way. It could happen again, and then it could take off again.

It seems to me that the enthusiasm for bitcoin is a little bit out of proportion to its immediate application. I don't know, maybe it's possible that you can still ride this bubble on bitcoin. But I keep thinking there'll be other currencies, other ideas will come up and will eclipse this one. So it's risky."