Sunday, April 2, 2017

High CAPE ratio making me nervous

It's already high enough to make me nervous ... the CAPE ratio is one of the best indicators, or I might say the best indicator, if you look at one alone, for the outlook in the long run for stocks. It's high now; and in the past when it's been this high, it hasn't done well.

I'm just playing the game a little bit here, and thinking, in the shorter run, this rally — I can start to see reasons for it, and I'm thinking about those reasons.

This is not a typical bull market with a lot of excitement. It's more of an anxious market where people are afraid of secular stagnation, of losing their jobs to foreigners, or to computers. And they have kind of a wishful-thinking bias about investments like stocks. It's the only way I can understand it. 

I'm not going to plunge into the market. I'm holding steady; I'm not pulling out, either. If I was giving you advice: Do nothing. Don't pull out. Don't go in," the Nobel laureate economist said Tuesday. "I'm sounding very standard right now. I still suspect there is more left in the Trump rally.